Coupled models of coastal hazards, ecosystems, socioeconomics, and landscape management in conjunction with alternative scenario analysis provide tools that can allow decision-makers to explore effects of policy decisions under uncertain futures. Here, researchers describe the development and assessment of a set of model-based alternative future scenarios examining climate and population driven landscape dynamics for a coastal region in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. These scenarios incorporated coupled spatiotemporal models of climate and coastal hazards, population and development, and policy and assessed a variety of landscape metrics for each scenario. Coastal flooding and erosion were probabilistically simulated using 99 future 95-year climate scenarios. Five policy scenarios were iteratively co-developed by researchers and stakeholders in Tillamook County, Oregon. Results suggest that both climate change and management decisions have a significant impact across the landscape, and can potentially impact geographic regions at different magnitudes and timescales.

Authors: Alexis K. Mills⁠, John P. Bolte⁠, Peter Ruggiero⁠∗, Katherine A. Serafin⁠, Eva Lipiec⁠, Patrick Corcoran⁠, John Stevenson⁠, Chad Zanocco⁠, Denise Lach⁠

Authors: 
Alexis K. Mills⁠, et al
Short Description: 
Models of coastal hazards, ecosystems, socioeconomics, and landscape management are coupled in conjunction with alternative scenario analysis to provide tools that can allow decision-makers to explore effects of policy decisions under uncertain futures.
Product Number: 
ORESU-R-18-021
Entry Date: 
Monday, November 5, 2018
Length: 
13 pages
Source (Journal Article): 
Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 109, November 2018, Pages 80-92
DOI Number (Journal Article): 
10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.022
Year of Publication: 
2018

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