This material was presented at the Coastal Sediments Conference in St. Pete Beach, Florida in 2019.
Developing an effective adaptation strategy for coping with future coastal hazards necessitates considering human-induced alterations to the system, climate-induced changes to environmental forcings, and the feedbacks between these drivers.
This study expands on recent county-scale applications of Envision. This is a stakeholder-driven, spatially explicit decision-making framework for exploring alternative coastal futures. It broadens the scope to the entire Oregon coast and explicitly incorporating climate variability into forecasted coastal hazards. This variability is introduced through TESLA- EX, a climate emulator capable of producing stochastic time series relevant to forcing the coastal evolution and flooding sub-models in Envision. The resulting outputs from TESLA-EX docked with Envision are designed to help coastal communities develop effective adaptation strategies against coastal hazards, and provide researchers, government officials, and community stakeholders with a quantitative understanding of the relative importance of adaptation decisions and climate variability in driving future changes to their community.
Authors: Leung, M., Ruggiero, P., Anderson, D., Mendez, F., Rueda, A., Bolte, J.