Oregon Sea Grant

An approach is developed for performing probabilistic coastal vulnerability assessments. By exploring a wide range of possible climate futures, coastal change hazard zones of arbitrary confidence level are developed using a suite of simple models. Exposure analyses are performed by superimposing relevant socio-economic data, such as locations of structures and roads, on the hazard zones. The approach allows for quantitative assessments of the impact of climate change uncertainty on possible future coastal configurations. Here we use the simplest coastal change models available, but the approach is developed modularly in that more sophisticated models can replace the simple models when appropriate (e.g., when more detailed results are needed).